CAJ | 학술논문

应用了大数据时代的新型指标———百度指数，通过合理的数据统计模型设定，统计检验了“后效应”理论。“后效应”理论属于中层理论范畴，其是期刊发展与管理理论的重要一环，其所要解决的是“核心期刊”存在合理性的问题。其指出，“核心”是前一个时段期刊质量的评估结果，但这个结果所产生的影响仍然会在后一个时段内表现出来，并会对提升学术期刊质量产生积极影响。以往关于“后效应”理论的研究限于定性分析与案例检证，我们在本文中便做了进一步统计检证的工作，完善了“后效应”理论体系。
응용료대수거시대적신형지표———백도지수，통과합리적수거통계모형설정，통계검험료“후효응”이론。“후효응”이론속우중층이론범주，기시기간발전여관리이론적중요일배，기소요해결적시“핵심기간”존재합이성적문제。기지출，“핵심”시전일개시단기간질량적평고결과，단저개결과소산생적영향잉연회재후일개시단내표현출래，병회대제승학술기간질양산생적겁영향。이왕관우“후효응”이론적연구한우정성분석여안례검증，아문재본문중편주료진일보통계검증적공작，완선료“후효응”이론체계。
In this paper, we adopt Baidu-Index to testify the consequent nature of the core journals selection through reasonable data sta-tistics model setting. The statistical test method is to testify the consequent nature theory. This theory is a middle-theory about journals de-velopment and management. It tries to answer the question that if the core journals selection is reasonable. It points out that“core” is the result of journals selection in a period of time before, however its effect will go on increasing during the later period. It can improve the quality of the journals through this mechanism. And the studies about this theory formerly are confined to qualitative analysis and case veri-fication. So we try to testify the consequert nature of the core journals selection via the statistical test method. This method completes the theoretical system of the consequent nature theory.