西部论坛
西部論罈
서부론단
Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University (West Forum)
2015年
6期
55-61
,共7页
通货膨胀惯性%货币政策%通货膨胀粘性%通货膨胀预期%混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线%反通货膨胀成本%货币供应量%利率市场化
通貨膨脹慣性%貨幣政策%通貨膨脹粘性%通貨膨脹預期%混閤新凱恩斯菲利普斯麯線%反通貨膨脹成本%貨幣供應量%利率市場化
통화팽창관성%화폐정책%통화팽창점성%통화팽창예기%혼합신개은사비리보사곡선%반통화팽창성본%화폐공응량%리솔시장화
inflation inertia%monetary policy%inflation stickiness%inflation forecast%mixed new Keynesian-Phillips Curve%disinflation cost%monetary supply amount%market-oriented interest rates
通货膨胀惯性内生于通货膨胀动态演进系统中，并会制约外生货币政策冲击对通货膨胀的影响，进而导致实现货币政策目标的成本增大。纯前瞻性的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线不包含内在的通货膨胀惯性，无法用来描述和解释通货膨胀惯性问题。构建包含通货膨胀粘性假设的后顾性菲利普斯曲线模型，并采用1996—2013年的季度数据来描述我国通货膨胀的惯性动态特征，结果表明：我国通货膨胀具有较强的惯性，利率和货币供应量对通货膨胀的影响显著。较高的通货膨胀惯性意味着刺激经济的货币政策会导致较高的反通货膨胀成本，中央银行应该赋予控制通货膨胀目标更高的权重，并将市场型货币政策工具作为抑制通货膨胀的主要手段。
通貨膨脹慣性內生于通貨膨脹動態縯進繫統中，併會製約外生貨幣政策遲擊對通貨膨脹的影響，進而導緻實現貨幣政策目標的成本增大。純前瞻性的新凱恩斯菲利普斯麯線不包含內在的通貨膨脹慣性，無法用來描述和解釋通貨膨脹慣性問題。構建包含通貨膨脹粘性假設的後顧性菲利普斯麯線模型，併採用1996—2013年的季度數據來描述我國通貨膨脹的慣性動態特徵，結果錶明：我國通貨膨脹具有較彊的慣性，利率和貨幣供應量對通貨膨脹的影響顯著。較高的通貨膨脹慣性意味著刺激經濟的貨幣政策會導緻較高的反通貨膨脹成本，中央銀行應該賦予控製通貨膨脹目標更高的權重，併將市場型貨幣政策工具作為抑製通貨膨脹的主要手段。
통화팽창관성내생우통화팽창동태연진계통중，병회제약외생화폐정책충격대통화팽창적영향，진이도치실현화폐정책목표적성본증대。순전첨성적신개은사비리보사곡선불포함내재적통화팽창관성，무법용래묘술화해석통화팽창관성문제。구건포함통화팽창점성가설적후고성비리보사곡선모형，병채용1996—2013년적계도수거래묘술아국통화팽창적관성동태특정，결과표명：아국통화팽창구유교강적관성，리솔화화폐공응량대통화팽창적영향현저。교고적통화팽창관성의미착자격경제적화폐정책회도치교고적반통화팽창성본，중앙은행응해부여공제통화팽창목표경고적권중，병장시장형화폐정책공구작위억제통화팽창적주요수단。
Inflation inertia is endogenously produced in inflation dynamic evolution system,can restrict the influence of exogenous monetary policy shock on the inflation and further increases the cost to realize monetary policy objective.The pure forward-looking Phillips Curve does not include intrinsic inflation inertia and can not be used to describe and explain inflation inertia.This paper is based on a backward-looking Phillips curve model including sticky inflation assumptions to describe the dynamic feature of inflation inertia in China during 1996-2013.The results show that the inflation in China has strong inertia and that the impact of interest rates and money supply amount on inflation in China is significant.Higher inflation inertia means that the monetary policy to stimulate the economy will lead to higher disinflation costs,and Central Bank should give higher weight to inflation goal and take market-oriented monetary policy tool as the main method to inhibit the inflation.
