气候与环境研究
氣候與環境研究
기후여배경연구
Climatic and Environmental Research
2015年
6期
705-714
,共10页
刘世梁%田韫钰%安南南%赵海迪%董世魁
劉世樑%田韞鈺%安南南%趙海迪%董世魁
류세량%전운옥%안남남%조해적%동세괴
气候变化%澜沧江流域%标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)%归一化植被指数(NDVI)%相关性
氣候變化%瀾滄江流域%標準化降水蒸散指數(SPEI)%歸一化植被指數(NDVI)%相關性
기후변화%란창강류역%표준화강수증산지수(SPEI)%귀일화식피지수(NDVI)%상관성
Climate change%Lancang River valley%SPEI%NDVI%Correlation
基于澜沧江流域10个气象站点1951～2012年的日降水资料的逐月标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）值、各站1998～2012年流域的归一化植被指数（NDVI）值，利用 SPEI 以及趋势分析法，多尺度分析了澜沧江流域干旱发生的时间和强度演变特征以及上中下游NDVI时间变化特征，探讨了气候变化对植被变化的影响，并对NDVI与SPEI的变化进行了相关性分析。结果表明，不同站点和不同时间尺度的SPEI值均呈现出干旱化逐年加强的线性趋势，上游相对于中下游干旱态势较轻，且时间尺度越大，干旱波动趋势越明显；在季节尺度上，夏、秋、冬的SPEI值均呈下降趋势，其中冬季干旱最为严重；15年来澜沧江流域各区域年平均NDVI总体表现为先降低后增加，总体植被状况得到改善，其中下游较明显。从年际变化看，对于流域的不同区域，NDVI与不同尺度的SPEI的相关性和滞后性有较大差异，年代际之间的响应规律也不同，中下游的SPEI对同年NDVI的响应比较敏感，而上游则表现出明显的滞后性。说明 NDVI 对 SPEI 的响应比较敏感，干旱程度的变化在一定程度上影响着流域的植被状况，SPEI是影响NDVI的因素之一。
基于瀾滄江流域10箇氣象站點1951～2012年的日降水資料的逐月標準化降水蒸散指數（SPEI）值、各站1998～2012年流域的歸一化植被指數（NDVI）值，利用 SPEI 以及趨勢分析法，多呎度分析瞭瀾滄江流域榦旱髮生的時間和彊度縯變特徵以及上中下遊NDVI時間變化特徵，探討瞭氣候變化對植被變化的影響，併對NDVI與SPEI的變化進行瞭相關性分析。結果錶明，不同站點和不同時間呎度的SPEI值均呈現齣榦旱化逐年加彊的線性趨勢，上遊相對于中下遊榦旱態勢較輕，且時間呎度越大，榦旱波動趨勢越明顯；在季節呎度上，夏、鞦、鼕的SPEI值均呈下降趨勢，其中鼕季榦旱最為嚴重；15年來瀾滄江流域各區域年平均NDVI總體錶現為先降低後增加，總體植被狀況得到改善，其中下遊較明顯。從年際變化看，對于流域的不同區域，NDVI與不同呎度的SPEI的相關性和滯後性有較大差異，年代際之間的響應規律也不同，中下遊的SPEI對同年NDVI的響應比較敏感，而上遊則錶現齣明顯的滯後性。說明 NDVI 對 SPEI 的響應比較敏感，榦旱程度的變化在一定程度上影響著流域的植被狀況，SPEI是影響NDVI的因素之一。
기우란창강류역10개기상참점1951～2012년적일강수자료적축월표준화강수증산지수（SPEI）치、각참1998～2012년류역적귀일화식피지수（NDVI）치，이용 SPEI 이급추세분석법，다척도분석료란창강류역간한발생적시간화강도연변특정이급상중하유NDVI시간변화특정，탐토료기후변화대식피변화적영향，병대NDVI여SPEI적변화진행료상관성분석。결과표명，불동참점화불동시간척도적SPEI치균정현출간한화축년가강적선성추세，상유상대우중하유간한태세교경，차시간척도월대，간한파동추세월명현；재계절척도상，하、추、동적SPEI치균정하강추세，기중동계간한최위엄중；15년래란창강류역각구역년평균NDVI총체표현위선강저후증가，총체식피상황득도개선，기중하유교명현。종년제변화간，대우류역적불동구역，NDVI여불동척도적SPEI적상관성화체후성유교대차이，년대제지간적향응규률야불동，중하유적SPEI대동년NDVI적향응비교민감，이상유칙표현출명현적체후성。설명 NDVI 대 SPEI 적향응비교민감，간한정도적변화재일정정도상영향착류역적식피상황，SPEI시영향NDVI적인소지일。
The characteristics of drought variations at different timescales in the Lancang River basin from 1951 to 2012 were studied using a new drought index (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI). The authors calculated this level from daily precipitation data at 10 meteorological stations. Furthermore, the authors used a time series (1998–2012) data set of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and trend analysis to analyze the inter-annual variation in the valley of the Lancang River and explore the relationship between NDVI and SPEI. The results show that the SPEI values at different sites and time scales showed a significant increased trend to drought, but the upstream situation was much less pronounced than the middle and lower reaches. SPEI values at different time scales vary significantly;the trend of drought is most obvious over a longer time scale. Drought occurred at all seasons—spring,summer, autumn, and winter—but the most serious drought occurred in winter. The regional annual average NDVI in the Lancang River valley decreased first, and the vegetation cover and ecological conditions improved in general. The downstream slope value was the greatest, indicating that vegetative conditions had significantly improved. From the perspective of inter-annual change, the correlation and time lag between the NDVI and SPEI of various scales, and the response varied across the different regions of the basin. In that year, the SPEI and NDVI in the middle and lower reaches showed a swifter response, while there was a significant lag upstream. This result suggests that the response of NDVI for SPEI is sensitive. To some extent, the degree influences vegetation, and SPEI is one of the factors that influences the NDVI.
