CAJ | 학술논문

基于污染空间扩散这一遗漏掉的非观测变量将传统线性环境库兹涅茨曲线在空间维度扩展成能同时测度环境污染与不同地区经济增长之间关系的“空间双拐点”模型。基于中国31个省区1990—2012年工业废气面板数据的检验结果显示：某一地区工业废气污染与辖域内、外不同地区经济增长之间的关系均呈倒U型，这一结论即使在置换包含不同邻域数的空间权重矩阵之后也具有稳健性，因此遏制工业废气污染需同时逾越辖域内、外经济发展“拐点”。随着产生污染空间扩散的毗邻地区数增加，改善工业废气污染所要求的辖域内经济发展水平趋于严格，辖域内“拐点”到来呈滞后趋势；而改善工业废气污染所要求的辖域外其他地区经济发展水平则随着地理毗邻关系减弱而趋于宽松。政策提示污染治理需国家层面整体推进、缩小区域间经济发展水平差距以及杜绝落后产业的区域间转移。
기우오염공간확산저일유루도적비관측변량장전통선성배경고자열자곡선재공간유도확전성능동시측도배경오염여불동지구경제증장지간관계적“공간쌍괴점”모형。기우중국31개성구1990—2012년공업폐기면판수거적검험결과현시：모일지구공업폐기오염여할역내、외불동지구경제증장지간적관계균정도U형，저일결론즉사재치환포함불동린역수적공간권중구진지후야구유은건성，인차알제공업폐기오염수동시유월할역내、외경제발전“괴점”。수착산생오염공간확산적비린지구수증가，개선공업폐기오염소요구적할역내경제발전수평추우엄격，할역내“괴점”도래정체후추세；이개선공업폐기오염소요구적할역외기타지구경제발전수평칙수착지리비린관계감약이추우관송。정책제시오염치리수국가층면정체추진、축소구역간경제발전수평차거이급두절락후산업적구역간전이。
The classical linear Environmental Kuznets Curve is developed with two spatial break points which can analyzes relationship between environmental pollution and local economic growth , even relationship between environmental pollution and neighbor economic growth . By using a panel data including Chinese 31 provinces from 1990 to 2012 ,the test shows that relationship of reverse U‐shaped curve is depicted between environmental pollution and local economic growth ,that is same to relationship between environmental pollution and neighbor economic growth . The conclusion is robust even using different spatial weighted matrix .So the environmental pollution can be suppressed only when both spatial break points are achieved .Along with polluting districts increasing ,local economy development level has to be promoted to suppress pollution ,w hich causes local break point of economic grow th to be late to reach .Even lower economy development level of neighbor district can match the request of local pollution treatment when distance between them is extended .So it suggests that pollution must be treated by central government , with reducing economic gap between developed areas and developing areas , stopping industrial transfer among areas .