CAJ | 학술논문

传统的泰勒规则是以产出缺口作为反映经济活动的指标，由于产出缺口的不可观测性直接导致了利率反应函数估计精度的下降。以产出增长率缺口替代产出缺口，重新对泰勒规则进行估计，实证结果表明：使用GDP增长率缺口替代产出缺口，显著地改善了利率反应函数的估计效果；从预测误差来看，后顾性利率反应函数的预测结果更接近于实际名义利率，而前瞻性模型的预测能力相对较差。这说明中国利率调整政策更多地依赖于以往的经验而前瞻性预期相对较弱，这也充分表明了中国货币政策的调整是谨慎的，在一定程度上是可预见的。
전통적태륵규칙시이산출결구작위반영경제활동적지표，유우산출결구적불가관측성직접도치료리솔반응함수고계정도적하강。이산출증장솔결구체대산출결구，중신대태륵규칙진행고계，실증결과표명：사용GDP증장솔결구체대산출결구，현저지개선료리솔반응함수적고계효과；종예측오차래간，후고성리솔반응함수적예측결과경접근우실제명의리솔，이전첨성모형적예측능력상대교차。저설명중국리솔조정정책경다지의뢰우이왕적경험이전첨성예기상대교약，저야충분표명료중국화폐정책적조정시근신적，재일정정도상시가예견적。
In typical Taylor rule ,unobservability of output gap used to be the indicator of economic activity decreases the accuracy of estimated parameters .We use GDP grow th gap instead of output gap as the indicator of economic activity in building Taylor rule .The empirical results show that GDP growth gap can improve the accuracy of model significantly .Backward‐looking reaction function fits the historical data of Chinese interbank rates much better than others .It implies that the adjusting of interest rate in China depends much more on the historical experiences ,less on forward‐looking expectation .The monetary policy of China's central bank is cautious and predictable in some extent .