CAJ | 학술논문

利用1997－2010年云南省126个县（市、区）的相关数据，基于非线性动态模型，通过将债务最优规模水平和调整速度内生化，实证考察了中国县域层面地方政府性债务规模的调整机制。研究结果显示：（1）地方政府性债务存在最优规模水平，最优规模值为0．43，但目前在整体上表现为负债不足，尚有一定举债空间；（2）调整速度的平均值为0．207，远小于1，表明债务规模的调整优化面临较高的成本，呈现出渐进而缓慢的部分调整过程；（3）最优规模水平和调整速度均存在着显著的时间和地区特征差异，不同地区要根据其自身特征来优化调整债务规模，以实现债务净正效应的最大化。
이용1997－2010년운남성126개현（시、구）적상관수거，기우비선성동태모형，통과장채무최우규모수평화조정속도내생화，실증고찰료중국현역층면지방정부성채무규모적조정궤제。연구결과현시：（1）지방정부성채무존재최우규모수평，최우규모치위0．43，단목전재정체상표현위부채불족，상유일정거채공간；（2）조정속도적평균치위0．207，원소우1，표명채무규모적조정우화면림교고적성본，정현출점진이완만적부분조정과정；（3）최우규모수평화조정속도균존재착현저적시간화지구특정차이，불동지구요근거기자신특정래우화조정채무규모，이실현채무정정효응적최대화。
T his paper investigates the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the scale of local government debt with a nonlinear dynamic model covering 126 counties of Yunnan Province over 1997 to 2010 by making the optimal level and adjustment speed of debt scale endogenous .T he results show that :(1 )the optimal level of debt scale exists ,the value is 0 .43 ,but the actual scale is insufficient on the w hole;(2)the average speed of adjustment is 0 .207 and is far less than 1 ,this indicates the adjustment is costly and the adjustment process is gradual and slow ;(3)the optimal scale and adjustment speed both have significant differences in year and region .In order to maximize the net positive effect of debt ,different regions should optimize the debt scale according to their ow n characteristics .