CAJ | 학술논문

文章针对军机研制过程中不确定性因素多、风险大的问题，根据“证据折扣”思想，提出了一种基于区间直觉模糊和改进D‐S证据理论的风险评估方法。首先，构建了军机研制风险评估指标体系，提出了基于指标不确信度的M ass函数构建方法；然后，提出了基于区间直觉模糊熵的指标权重确定方法，将各要素的指标集关于评语集的评估证据进行修正与合成；最后，提出了融合冲突系数和 Jousselme距离的证据冲突度计算方法并以此度量要素权重，将各要素关于评语集的评估证据进行修正与合成，确定了风险等级。算例结果验证了方法的可行性和有效性。
문장침대군궤연제과정중불학정성인소다、풍험대적문제，근거“증거절구”사상，제출료일충기우구간직각모호화개진D‐S증거이론적풍험평고방법。수선，구건료군궤연제풍험평고지표체계，제출료기우지표불학신도적M ass함수구건방법；연후，제출료기우구간직각모호적적지표권중학정방법，장각요소적지표집관우평어집적평고증거진행수정여합성；최후，제출료융합충돌계수화 Jousselme거리적증거충돌도계산방법병이차도량요소권중，장각요소관우평어집적평고증거진행수정여합성，학정료풍험등급。산례결과험증료방법적가행성화유효성。
Aiming at the problems of great uncertainties and considerable risk in the military aircraft develop‐ment process ,and in accordance with the idea of evidence discount ,a risk assessment method based on inter‐val‐valued intuitionistic fuzziness and improved Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S ) evidence theory is proposed .Firstly , the risk assessment index system of military aircraft development and the Mass function based on the uncertain degrees of different indices are established .Then ,an index‐weight determination method based on interval‐valued intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is put forward ,and the evidence information of the multi‐index of factors’ group towards comment set is modified and integrated .Finally ,the calculation method of evidence conflict de‐gree based on conflict coefficient and Jousselme distance is established and used to compute the factor weight , then the evidence information of all factors towards comment set is modified and integrated and the risk level of military aircraft development is determined .A numerical example is given to verify the feasibility and valid‐ity of this method .