CAJ | 학술논문

在发输电组合系统可靠性评估中，各节点负荷之间存在一定的相关性。文章利用核密度函数方法得到各个节点负荷的边缘分布函数；然后选择合适的copula函数及其参数来描述各个节点负荷之间的相关性，并得到各个节点负荷的联合概率分布函数；通过对联合概率分布函数的抽样得到节点负荷的随机样本，并运用非序贯蒙特卡洛方法计算得到发输电系统可靠性指标。通过改进的IEEE‐RBTS系统算例分析，说明了通过copula函数形成节点负荷的联合概率分布函数的过程，解释了基于相关性的负荷模型对发输电系统可靠性指标的影响，验证了文中建模方法的有效性。
재발수전조합계통가고성평고중，각절점부하지간존재일정적상관성。문장이용핵밀도함수방법득도각개절점부하적변연분포함수；연후선택합괄적copula함수급기삼수래묘술각개절점부하지간적상관성，병득도각개절점부하적연합개솔분포함수；통과대연합개솔분포함수적추양득도절점부하적수궤양본，병운용비서관몽특잡락방법계산득도발수전계통가고성지표。통과개진적IEEE‐RBTS계통산례분석，설명료통과copula함수형성절점부하적연합개솔분포함수적과정，해석료기우상관성적부하모형대발수전계통가고성지표적영향，험증료문중건모방법적유효성。
In the reliability evaluation of generation and transmission system ,there is a certain correla‐tion among the load of some buses .Firstly ,the non‐parametric kernel density function was used to estimate the marginal distribution density function of each bus load .T hen the correlation among each bus load was described by proper copula function and its parameters ,and the joint probability distri‐bution function of buses’ load was obtained .Finally ,the random samples of each bus load were ac‐quired through sampling the joint probability distribution function of buses ’ load ,and reliability the generation and transmission system were calculated out by using the non‐sequential Monte Carlo method .A case study of a revised IEEE‐RBTS was used to illustrate the process of forming the joint probability distribution function of buses’ load with the copula function ,to explain the influence of bus load correlation on the reliability indices ,and to validate the modeling method proposed .