船电技术
船電技術
선전기술
Marine Electric & Electronic Technology
2015年
11期
6-8,14
,共4页
Bayes估计%小子样%可靠性%先验分布
Bayes估計%小子樣%可靠性%先驗分佈
Bayes고계%소자양%가고성%선험분포
bayesian estimation%small simple%reliability%prior distribution
针对导弹造昂贵价、样本少、贮存可靠性验证难度大的特点，本文探讨了基于小样本的 Bayes 统计分析模型，这种模型以故障率的共轭验前分布Gamma分布为先验分布，充分利用了历史试验数据的同时，结合导弹现场试验数据，给出了导弹故障率的后验分布，并推算出可靠性 Bayes 点估计和置信限。最后以某型导弹为例，利用其试验数据验证了此方法的有效性。
針對導彈造昂貴價、樣本少、貯存可靠性驗證難度大的特點，本文探討瞭基于小樣本的 Bayes 統計分析模型，這種模型以故障率的共軛驗前分佈Gamma分佈為先驗分佈，充分利用瞭歷史試驗數據的同時，結閤導彈現場試驗數據，給齣瞭導彈故障率的後驗分佈，併推算齣可靠性 Bayes 點估計和置信限。最後以某型導彈為例，利用其試驗數據驗證瞭此方法的有效性。
침대도탄조앙귀개、양본소、저존가고성험증난도대적특점，본문탐토료기우소양본적 Bayes 통계분석모형，저충모형이고장솔적공액험전분포Gamma분포위선험분포，충분이용료역사시험수거적동시，결합도탄현장시험수거，급출료도탄고장솔적후험분포，병추산출가고성 Bayes 점고계화치신한。최후이모형도탄위례，이용기시험수거험증료차방법적유효성。
Aimed at the characteristics of the missile's high cost, low sample and the difficulty of storage reliability verification, Bayes statistical analysis model based on small sample is discussed in this paper. This model is conjugated failure rate of prior distribution for the prior distribution Gamma distribution. By full use of the historical test data, combined with missile field test data, gives the posterior distribution of the failure rate of missile, and calculates the reliability Bayes point estimate and confidence limits. Finally, the validity of this approach is verified by an example of a type of missile using its test data.
