CAJ | 학술논문

基于生产要素替代视角及现有技术进步条件,利用最优化理论构建了最优经济增长模型, Lasso分析结果显示:经济增长与能源消耗存在较强耦合关系,能源消耗每增加一个百分点,国民生产总值将增加0. 034个百分点;2014~2020年中国能源强度约在0. 7~0. 8之间,最优经济增长约为8%左右. 经济增长与能源强度的耦合关系表明:从长期来看,片面缩小能源消耗,过度强调降低能源强度,可能对经济发展产生阻尼效应. 进一步的分析表明:生产要素替代弹性与经济增长成正相关;外生能源价格越高对经济增长越容易产生约束;资本生产率的提高对经济增长有显著的推动作用. 如何充分发挥其他生产要素替代作用,在确保经济最优增长和降低能源强度间寻找一个平衡点是未来经济发展的导向.
기우생산요소체대시각급현유기술진보조건,이용최우화이론구건료최우경제증장모형, Lasso분석결과현시:경제증장여능원소모존재교강우합관계,능원소모매증가일개백분점,국민생산총치장증가0. 034개백분점;2014~2020년중국능원강도약재0. 7~0. 8지간,최우경제증장약위8%좌우. 경제증장여능원강도적우합관계표명:종장기래간,편면축소능원소모,과도강조강저능원강도,가능대경제발전산생조니효응. 진일보적분석표명:생산요소체대탄성여경제증장성정상관;외생능원개격월고대경제증장월용역산생약속;자본생산솔적제고대경제증장유현저적추동작용. 여하충분발휘기타생산요소체대작용,재학보경제최우증장화강저능원강도간심조일개평형점시미래경제발전적도향.
This paper sets up the optimal economic growth model based on production factors alternative perspective and opti-mization theory. Result of Lasso analysis showed that, there is a strong coupling between economic growth and energy con-sumption, energy consumption for each one percentage point increase, national production GDP will increase by 0. 034 per-centage points;Chinese energy intensity from 2014 to 2020 is between 0. 8-0. 7, optimal economic growth of is about 8%. The coupling relationship between economic growth and energy intensity shows that, in the long run, one-sided reduce ener-gy consumption, excessively emphasis on reducing energy intensity, will possibly lead to damping effect on economic devel-opment. Generally speaking, the elasticity of substitution and capital productivity has a positive effect on economic growth;promoting energy prices will be bad economic growth. How to give full play to the factors of production alternatives in ensu-ring optimum between economic growth and reduce energy intensity is directed to find a balance future economic develop-ment.