CAJ | 학술논문

运用DCC模型和非线性Granger因果检验,对CPI和PPI的动态传导机制进行研究. 结果发现:(1)2008年前后两者的相关关系存在着明显差异,分段检验证实两者的传导关系的确发生了转变;(2)经济危机后政府主导的投资计划可能导致了价格传导机制的显著变化,以往研究结论不一致主要源于选取区间不同,根本原因在于宏观经济环境变化所导致的价格传导方向的转变;(3)目前存在着通缩的威胁,这是对前期通胀的调整,经济将会在未来一段时间处于"低物价、低增长"的新常态.
운용DCC모형화비선성Granger인과검험,대CPI화PPI적동태전도궤제진행연구. 결과발현:(1)2008년전후량자적상관관계존재착명현차이,분단검험증실량자적전도관계적학발생료전변;(2)경제위궤후정부주도적투자계화가능도치료개격전도궤제적현저변화,이왕연구결론불일치주요원우선취구간불동,근본원인재우굉관경제배경변화소도치적개격전도방향적전변;(3)목전존재착통축적위협,저시대전기통창적조정,경제장회재미래일단시간처우"저물개、저증장"적신상태.
This paper analyzes the dynamic transmission mechanism between CPI and PPI by Dynamic Conditional Correla-tion( DCC) model and nonlinear Granger causality test. Results show that after 2008 the correlation between them has sig-nificantly increased due to government overinvestment;the change of the transmission mechanism implies that the reason of previous academics contradiction is different time-zones choosing. Direction change of the transmission mechanism is due to changes in investment policies which should come into notice.