CAJ | 학술논문

负荷变动规律的机理分析及其概率建模是电网可靠性与负荷之间互动影响研究的关键。计及节点负荷变化的不确定性和相关性，开展电网可靠性量化评估，可深度揭示电网可靠性与负荷之间的耦合关系，但现有研究忽略了节点与系统负荷之间在物理机理上的关联本质，如“直接加和”特性。基于此提出电网可靠性评估的非参数解集负荷模型，该模型在节点负荷的不确定性和相关性规律描述上避开了节点负荷间相依结构(线性或非线性相关)以及系统负荷与节点负荷概率密度函数形式(正态或非正态)的假定，保持了节点负荷与系统负荷间的“直接加和”特性，可有效实现从全局系统负荷到局部节点负荷的解集，为电网可靠性评估等概率仿真模型提供了实用的负荷变动规律模型。通过对改进的RBTS和IEEE-RTS79可靠性测试系统的评估分析，验证了该模型的正确性和有效性。
부하변동규률적궤리분석급기개솔건모시전망가고성여부하지간호동영향연구적관건。계급절점부하변화적불학정성화상관성，개전전망가고성양화평고，가심도게시전망가고성여부하지간적우합관계，단현유연구홀략료절점여계통부하지간재물리궤리상적관련본질，여“직접가화”특성。기우차제출전망가고성평고적비삼수해집부하모형，해모형재절점부하적불학정성화상관성규률묘술상피개료절점부하간상의결구(선성혹비선성상관)이급계통부하여절점부하개솔밀도함수형식(정태혹비정태)적가정，보지료절점부하여계통부하간적“직접가화”특성，가유효실현종전국계통부하도국부절점부하적해집，위전망가고성평고등개솔방진모형제공료실용적부하변동규률모형。통과대개진적RBTS화IEEE-RTS79가고성측시계통적평고분석，험증료해모형적정학성화유효성。
Probabilistic load modeling is an effective way to incorporate the variation and correlation of bus loads in power system reliability evaluation. However, existing probabilistic load models are not always accurate because they do not consider the additive correlation between system load and bus loads. The additive correlation means that system load equals to the sum of all bus loads. This paper proposed a nonparametric disaggregation load model for power system reliability evaluation. The proposed model does not need any assumption of the probability distribution for system load and bus loads, or the correlation form between bus loads. Considering the additive correlation between system load and bus loads, the proposed load model can successively disaggregate system load to individual bus loads, and provide more accurate simulation of load variation in power system reliability studies. The modified RBTS and IEEE-RTS79 system were analyzed to show that the proposed model is correct and effective.