CAJ | 학술논문

日本经济在泡沫破灭后陷入了长期通货紧缩的泥潭.货币派认为日本长期通货紧缩的主要原因是货币传导机制受阻、汇率上升、日本央行政策摇摆等.结构派认为日本通缩长期化的原因在于供需结构性矛盾、老龄化问题突出、政治经济体制未能适应形势变化等.中国虽然没有进入全面通缩阶段,但已经面临较大通缩压力,主要原因包含国内外需求不足、产能过剩等.当前中国也出现了经济增速持续放缓,货币政策传导机制不畅等类似日本"平成通缩"的征兆,中国应坚持改革以突破发展中的难题,推进技术创新,大力化解产能过剩等.
일본경제재포말파멸후함입료장기통화긴축적니담.화폐파인위일본장기통화긴축적주요원인시화폐전도궤제수조、회솔상승、일본앙행정책요파등.결구파인위일본통축장기화적원인재우공수결구성모순、노령화문제돌출、정치경제체제미능괄응형세변화등.중국수연몰유진입전면통축계단,단이경면림교대통축압력,주요원인포함국내외수구불족、산능과잉등.당전중국야출현료경제증속지속방완,화폐정책전도궤제불창등유사일본"평성통축"적정조,중국응견지개혁이돌파발전중적난제,추진기술창신,대력화해산능과잉등.
Japanese economy fell into the long-term delfation after its bubbles burst. The currency school believes that there are three main reasons of Japanese long-term delfation—the frustration of monetary transmission mechanism, the rising of exchange rate and the policy's swing of Bank of Japan. The structuralist school believes that the reasons of the Japanese long-term delfation are the imbalance between supply and demand, the prominent problem of aging, and political and economic system not adapting to the situations and changes. At present, China has not entered into the stage of comprehensive delfation, but is facing larger delfationary pressures. The main reasons are the lack of domestic and foreign demands, overcapacity, etc. At present, the China's economic growth is slowing down, and the monetary policy's transmission mechanism is not smooth. These phenomena are similar to the signs of deflation in Japan. China should insist on reforming to solve problems of development, promote technological innovation, and resolve the overcapacity, etc.