CAJ | 학술논문

从投资、产业结构变迁与经济增长的内在机理出发,运用ADF检验和Johansen协整检验对1978-2012年大同市相关数据进行初步分析. 在协整方程的基础上,构建了经济增长、固定资产投资、产业结构合理化指数以及产业结构高级化指数四个变量之间的VEC模型. 研究结果表明:四个变量之间存在长期的协整关系.进一步研究VEC模型显示,在保证其余三个变量不变的情况下,第t期变量GDP、固定资产投资、产业结构高级化指数以及产业结构合理化指数对t-1期的修正系数分别为-6%、19%、24%和17%. 这表明大同市经济增长的来源更多是产业结构高级化以及产业结构合理化,而并不是固定资产投资. 大同经济发展应该积极推进农业发展和第三产业发展,从而形成相对稳定的产业基础.
종투자、산업결구변천여경제증장적내재궤리출발,운용ADF검험화Johansen협정검험대1978-2012년대동시상관수거진행초보분석. 재협정방정적기출상,구건료경제증장、고정자산투자、산업결구합이화지수이급산업결구고급화지수사개변량지간적VEC모형. 연구결과표명:사개변량지간존재장기적협정관계.진일보연구VEC모형현시,재보증기여삼개변량불변적정황하,제t기변량GDP、고정자산투자、산업결구고급화지수이급산업결구합이화지수대t-1기적수정계수분별위-6%、19%、24%화17%. 저표명대동시경제증장적래원경다시산업결구고급화이급산업결구합이화,이병불시고정자산투자. 대동경제발전응해적겁추진농업발전화제삼산업발전,종이형성상대은정적산업기출.
Based on the internal mechanism of investment , industrial structure change and economic growth,this paper makes a preliminary analysis of the relevant data in Datong from 1978-2012 by using ADF test and Johansen cointegration test .On the basis of the cointegration equation , we built the VEC Model of economic growth , fixed-asset investment , rationalization index of industrial structure and optimization index of industrial structure .The study shows that there is a long -term cointegration relationship between the four variables.Further research of VEC shows the elastic coefficients of economic growth to the optimization index of industrial structure , the rationalization index of industrial structure and the fixed asset investment were 1 .79 , 0 . 87 and 0 .43 respectively .This VEC Model shows that under the condition that the other three variables remain unchanged, in the phase t-1, the correction coefficients of GDP, FAI, TI and TL were -6%19%, 24%and 17%.The results showed the upgrading and rationalization of Industrial Structure are the main source of economic growth in Datong .Datong should promote the development of agriculture and tertiary industry in order to establish a relatively stable industrial base .