中国房地产（学术版）
中國房地產（學術版）
중국방지산（학술판）
China Real Estate
2015年
11期
10-19
,共10页
流动性%股市%楼市
流動性%股市%樓市
류동성%고시%루시
Liquidity%Stock market%Property market
货币供应量与资金价格的变化不仅决定着股市长期的趋势,而且可以作为研判房价走势的重要指标.货币供应量的增加和资金价格的降低是股市上涨、房价上升的直接推动力.通过对历史数据分析得出,货币供应量和房价正相关性非常强,是楼市最为显著的领先指标.以前几个周期表明,货币供应量明显领先于房价变化5个月左右的时间.2015年以来,针对经济下行压力较大等新形势,中国人民银行出台多项宽松货币政策,以保持适度流动性.从M1增幅来看,2015年8月,M1同比增幅为9.3%,较3月份的2.9%上升6.4个百分点,二三季度增幅明显.而70城房价环比增幅已于5月份进入正增长区间,同比跌幅连续6个月收窄,预计四季度及明年上半年房价仍有一定上升空间.
貨幣供應量與資金價格的變化不僅決定著股市長期的趨勢,而且可以作為研判房價走勢的重要指標.貨幣供應量的增加和資金價格的降低是股市上漲、房價上升的直接推動力.通過對歷史數據分析得齣,貨幣供應量和房價正相關性非常彊,是樓市最為顯著的領先指標.以前幾箇週期錶明,貨幣供應量明顯領先于房價變化5箇月左右的時間.2015年以來,針對經濟下行壓力較大等新形勢,中國人民銀行齣檯多項寬鬆貨幣政策,以保持適度流動性.從M1增幅來看,2015年8月,M1同比增幅為9.3%,較3月份的2.9%上升6.4箇百分點,二三季度增幅明顯.而70城房價環比增幅已于5月份進入正增長區間,同比跌幅連續6箇月收窄,預計四季度及明年上半年房價仍有一定上升空間.
화폐공응량여자금개격적변화불부결정착고시장기적추세,이차가이작위연판방개주세적중요지표.화폐공응량적증가화자금개격적강저시고시상창、방개상승적직접추동력.통과대역사수거분석득출,화폐공응량화방개정상관성비상강,시루시최위현저적령선지표.이전궤개주기표명,화폐공응량명현령선우방개변화5개월좌우적시간.2015년이래,침대경제하행압력교대등신형세,중국인민은행출태다항관송화폐정책,이보지괄도류동성.종M1증폭래간,2015년8월,M1동비증폭위9.3%,교3월빈적2.9%상승6.4개백분점,이삼계도증폭명현.이70성방개배비증폭이우5월빈진입정증장구간,동비질폭련속6개월수착,예계사계도급명년상반년방개잉유일정상승공간.
Money supply and the change of the capital price not only determines the stock market's long term trend,and can be used as an important index of house prices.The increase in the money supply and the cost of capital decrease is an impetus to rising share price and house prices. Through the analysis of historical data,we found that money supply and house prices showed positive correlation.The money supply lead to changes in house prices 5 months or so a few cycles before. Since 2015,the economic downward pressure is bigger.The people's bank of China issued a number of loose monetary policy.The increases of M1 is obviously,70 cities'house prices'year-on-year fall narrowed 6 months.It is estimated that in the fourth quarter and the first half of next year,house prices will continue to rise.
