CAJ | 학술논문

为了探讨黄土丘陵区径流变化规律 ,以甘肃罗玉沟流域作为典型区域 ,以1986 -2008年数据为基础 ,对该流域的多年径流量进行分析 ,并运用SWAT模型对其进行模拟和预测.结果表明 :该区域年径流量整体呈现下降的趋势 ,径流量的年校准期的相对误差为8.8% ,验证期的相对误差为13.8% ,决定系数R2 为0.874 ,Nash-Suttcliffe系数为0.55 ;月校准期相对误差为4.9% ,验证期的相对误差为4.9% ,决定系数R2 为0.91 ,效率系数为0.65.模拟值和实测值的拟合度较高 ,能够比较准确的模拟该地区的径流变化规律 ,根据模型模拟的结果可以合理地调整当地水资源的利用 ,为该地区水资源的规划、管理和生态用水提供科学依据.
위료탐토황토구릉구경류변화규률 ,이감숙라옥구류역작위전형구역 ,이1986 -2008년수거위기출 ,대해류역적다년경류량진행분석 ,병운용SWAT모형대기진행모의화예측.결과표명 :해구역년경류량정체정현하강적추세 ,경류량적년교준기적상대오차위8.8% ,험증기적상대오차위13.8% ,결정계수R2 위0.874 ,Nash-Suttcliffe계수위0.55 ;월교준기상대오차위4.9% ,험증기적상대오차위4.9% ,결정계수R2 위0.91 ,효솔계수위0.65.모의치화실측치적의합도교고 ,능구비교준학적모의해지구적경류변화규률 ,근거모형모의적결과가이합리지조정당지수자원적이용 ,위해지구수자원적규화、관리화생태용수제공과학의거.
In order to explore the variation of runoff in loess hilly region ,based on the data from 1986 to 2008 ,analysis of the River Valley years of runoff and used the SWAT model to simulate and predict .It was investigated that the an-nual runoff fluctuated greatly ,but took on obvious decreasing trend as a whole from1986-2008. The runoff years cali-bration of the relative error was 8.8% ,the relative error of the validation period was 13.8% ,correlation coefficient was 0.874 ,Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient was 0.55 ;The months calibration of the relative error was 4.9% ,the relative error of the validation period was 4.9% ,correlation coefficient was 0.91 ,The efficiency coefficient was 0.65. The simulated values and measured values was a high degree fitting ,it was able to more accurately simulate the runoff vari-ation of the region .The results of the simulation model can be a reasonable adjustment to local water resources utiliza-tion ,provide a scientific basis for water resources planning ,management and ecological water in the region .