CAJ | 학술논문

在分析灾害经济影响机制及中国“举国体制”在加速2008年汶川地震灾区经济恢复作用的基础上,将“举国体制”的加速重建以加速生产能力项引入到地区投入产出模型中,模拟并对比有、无举国体制情景下的灾区经济恢复进程,评估举国体制在减轻灾害间接经济损失中的作用。结果显示：举国体制中的举国救灾、对口支援等措施加速了灾后经济恢复进程,2008-2012年间,至少使灾害造成的间接经济损失减少5552亿元,同时因灾获益4588亿元；同时,本研究也为评估灾害风险管理策略的效益提供了一种方法。
재분석재해경제영향궤제급중국“거국체제”재가속2008년문천지진재구경제회복작용적기출상,장“거국체제”적가속중건이가속생산능력항인입도지구투입산출모형중,모의병대비유、무거국체제정경하적재구경제회복진정,평고거국체제재감경재해간접경제손실중적작용。결과현시：거국체제중적거국구재、대구지원등조시가속료재후경제회복진정,2008-2012년간,지소사재해조성적간접경제손실감소5552억원,동시인재획익4588억원；동시,본연구야위평고재해풍험관리책략적효익제공료일충방법。
Catastrophes have become a restricting factor to social-economic development.China’s state-run natural disaster relief system, characterized by national resource support in disaster relief period and counterpart assistance and preferential policies in recovery periods,has highlighted its advantage in reducing disaster impact and in accelerating disaster recovery and reconstruction.But how to quantify and to assess its economic benefits? Economic impact mechanism and response of the state-run relief system to 2008 Wenchuan earthquake were analyzed.This paper proposed a cost-benefit analysis framework to evaluate its economic benefits of state-run system with an input-output model,state-run disaster relief and reconstruction effort was considered as accelerated production capacity which was drawn into economic model. Monthly economic developments post-disaster with and without state-run system scenarios were compared to evaluate benefit of the state-run disaster management system in reducing economic losses in disaster.Preliminary data showed that this system decreased indirect (or higher-order)economic loss by 555 billion RMB from 2008 to 2012,Sichuan province received 459 billion RMB for this earthquake.This study provided a method for evaluation of disaster risk management strategies.