计算机工程与应用
計算機工程與應用
계산궤공정여응용
COMPUTER ENGINEERING AND APPLICATIONS
2013年
10期
28-31
,共4页
灰色预测模型%DNGM(1,1)模型%参数优化
灰色預測模型%DNGM(1,1)模型%參數優化
회색예측모형%DNGM(1,1)모형%삼수우화
gray forecast model%DNGM(1,1)model%parameters optimal
传统的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型是针对近似齐次指数序列建立的预测模型.为了拓广灰色预测模型的适用范围,建立了近似非齐次指数序列的灰色DNGM(1,1)预测模型.研究了这种灰色预测模型的性质,证明了这种模型都具有线性不变性,也能够完全拟合非齐次指数序列.考虑到初值条件对灰色模型的影响,对该模型进行了参数优化.数据仿真和实例分析表明,灰色DNGM(1,1)预测模型具有较高的预测精度.
傳統的灰色GM(1,1)預測模型是針對近似齊次指數序列建立的預測模型.為瞭拓廣灰色預測模型的適用範圍,建立瞭近似非齊次指數序列的灰色DNGM(1,1)預測模型.研究瞭這種灰色預測模型的性質,證明瞭這種模型都具有線性不變性,也能夠完全擬閤非齊次指數序列.攷慮到初值條件對灰色模型的影響,對該模型進行瞭參數優化.數據倣真和實例分析錶明,灰色DNGM(1,1)預測模型具有較高的預測精度.
전통적회색GM(1,1)예측모형시침대근사제차지수서렬건립적예측모형.위료탁엄회색예측모형적괄용범위,건립료근사비제차지수서렬적회색DNGM(1,1)예측모형.연구료저충회색예측모형적성질,증명료저충모형도구유선성불변성,야능구완전의합비제차지수서렬.고필도초치조건대회색모형적영향,대해모형진행료삼수우화.수거방진화실례분석표명,회색DNGM(1,1)예측모형구유교고적예측정도.
The traditional gray GM(1, 1)model is established for the approximation of homogeneous exponent sequence. In order to expand the applied range of gray forecasting models, the DNGM(1, 1)model is present for approximation non-homogeneous exponent sequence. The properties of this model are discussed, and it is proved that the DNGM(1, 1)model not only has coinci-dence of white non-homogeneous exponent law, but also has uniformity of linear transformation. The forecast accuracy of this model may be affected by the initial value conditions, the improvement DNGM(1, 1)model is obtained by parameters optimal. The data simulation and application example show that this model has higher precision than the traditional GM(1, 1)model.
