CAJ | 학술논문

在工程量清单计价模式下，由于招标工程量与竣工工程量存在差异，投标单位采用不平衡报价，会导致建设管理单位存在超概算的风险。本文在深入分析投标单位投标策略的基础上，构建不平衡最优报价模型，得出投标单位的最优报价；然后以山西省某输变电工程为例，采用蒙特卡罗模拟法，构建了输变电工程造价风险评估模型，对建设管理单位所面临的风险进行了度量，并提出改进措施，以减少超概算发生的概率。研究结果对工程造价管理具有一定指导意义，可以规范招投标规则，使输变电工程建设健康、合理、可持续地发展。
재공정량청단계개모식하，유우초표공정량여준공공정량존재차이，투표단위채용불평형보개，회도치건설관리단위존재초개산적풍험。본문재심입분석투표단위투표책략적기출상，구건불평형최우보개모형，득출투표단위적최우보개；연후이산서성모수변전공정위례，채용몽특잡라모의법，구건료수변전공정조개풍험평고모형，대건설관리단위소면림적풍험진행료도량，병제출개진조시，이감소초개산발생적개솔。연구결과대공정조개관리구유일정지도의의，가이규범초투표규칙，사수변전공정건설건강、합리、가지속지발전。
In the bill-of-quantity mode, as there are some di- fferences between bidding engineering quantity and compl- eted engineering quantity, the unbalanced quotation adopted by bidding companies may lead to the probable risk to construc- tion companies. Based on the thorough analysis on the bidding strategies of bidding companies the optimal unbalanced biddi- ng model was built to acquire the optimum price quotation. Then, with Monte Carlo simulation method cost risk evaluati- on model of power transmission and transformation projects was built to measure the risk of construction companies. The appropriate measures were used according to the risk scale, which could minimize the happening of excess budgetary esti- mate. The research results have guiding significance to the en- gineering cost management, and wil standardize the bidding rules for the health, reasonable and sustainable development of the construction of power transmission and transformation pr- ojects.