价值工程
價值工程
개치공정
VALUE ENGINEERING
2015年
12期
253-256
,共4页
广东省%粮食产量预测%支持向量机%因子分析
廣東省%糧食產量預測%支持嚮量機%因子分析
광동성%양식산량예측%지지향량궤%인자분석
Guangdong Province%grain output forecast%support vector machine(SVM)%factor analysis(FA)
广东省粮食产量连年下降，粮食安全形势非常严峻。为了制定有效的粮食安全对策和设施规划，对粮食产量等主要指标进行准确预测至关重要。在对常用的粮食产量预测方法，如指数滑移、灰色系统等进行研究之后，这些方法的预测结果仍然不够满意。考虑到广东省粮食产量变动的特点，尝试将因子分析和支持向量机相结合，构建了广东省粮食产量的因子分析支持向量机组合预测模型。研究结果表明：相对于其他单一预测模型，该模型具有更高的预测精度和泛化能力。
廣東省糧食產量連年下降，糧食安全形勢非常嚴峻。為瞭製定有效的糧食安全對策和設施規劃，對糧食產量等主要指標進行準確預測至關重要。在對常用的糧食產量預測方法，如指數滑移、灰色繫統等進行研究之後，這些方法的預測結果仍然不夠滿意。攷慮到廣東省糧食產量變動的特點，嘗試將因子分析和支持嚮量機相結閤，構建瞭廣東省糧食產量的因子分析支持嚮量機組閤預測模型。研究結果錶明：相對于其他單一預測模型，該模型具有更高的預測精度和汎化能力。
광동성양식산량련년하강，양식안전형세비상엄준。위료제정유효적양식안전대책화설시규화，대양식산량등주요지표진행준학예측지관중요。재대상용적양식산량예측방법，여지수활이、회색계통등진행연구지후，저사방법적예측결과잉연불구만의。고필도광동성양식산량변동적특점，상시장인자분석화지지향량궤상결합，구건료광동성양식산량적인자분석지지향량궤조합예측모형。연구결과표명：상대우기타단일예측모형，해모형구유경고적예측정도화범화능력。
The grain output of Guangdong Province has been declining in recent successive years, and the situation of grain security is becoming increasingly serious. In order to make effective grain security countermeasures and facilities planning, it is of vital importance to accurately forecast the grain production and other indicators. After studying the commonly used forecasting methods of grain production, such as exponential smoothing and grey system, finding that the prediction results of these methods cannot meet the needs of the research. Considering the changing characteristics of grain production in Guangdong Province, the paper attempts to combine factor analysis and support vector machine to construct a FA-SVM combined forecasting model of Guangdong Province. The results show that compared with the other single forecasting models, the new combined forecasting model has better prediction accuracy and generalization ability.
