CAJ | 학술논문

在可见的未来内，中国快速的经济增长使得其经济实力接近美国的可能性越来越大。这一增长给美国带来了切实的担忧。除此之外，未来中美经济实力持平的前景也提出了一个问题：当中国实力与美国持平时，中国是否将挑战美国的世界霸主地位？本文认为，“权力持平（parity）”这一概念并不适用于预测未来的中美关系。这是因为，持平意味着中美在经济方面将在某一时刻达到一个大致对等的水平。但是，鉴于中国的人口和地缘政治现实，仅有一个方面的实力持平并不能决定，甚至并不能有信心地预测到中美关系的未来趋势。中美关系的互动过程可能是一个充满矛盾和不断调和的曲折过程。它将是文明的磨合过程，而不是文明的冲突。
재가견적미래내，중국쾌속적경제증장사득기경제실력접근미국적가능성월래월대。저일증장급미국대래료절실적담우。제차지외，미래중미경제실력지평적전경야제출료일개문제：당중국실력여미국지평시，중국시부장도전미국적세계패주지위？본문인위，“권력지평（parity）”저일개념병불괄용우예측미래적중미관계。저시인위，지평의미착중미재경제방면장재모일시각체도일개대치대등적수평。단시，감우중국적인구화지연정치현실，부유일개방면적실력지평병불능결정，심지병불능유신심지예측도중미관계적미래추세。중미관계적호동과정가능시일개충만모순화불단조화적곡절과정。타장시문명적마합과정，이불시문명적충돌。
China＇ s remarkable economic growth raises the possibility that China＇ s economic capacity may approximate that of the United States in the foreseeable future. Besides the specific concerns that China＇ s growth poses for the United States, China＇ s economic approximation raises the question of whether or not China will challenge the United States for world hegemony when it reaches parity with the United States. This paper argues that parity is not a useful concept in the forecasting of future US-China relations. Parity implies a point of symmetry in economic situations, but given China＇ s demographic and geo-political realities, a single crossover point with the United States cannot be designated, even if future trends could be predicted with confidence. China＇ s approximation of the U- nited States deserves analysis in its own right rather than as a precursor to a hypothetical parity. The process of interaction in US-China relations is likely to be a zigzag path of friction and aeeommotation-a mohe （磨合） of civilizations rather than a clash of civilizations.