价值工程
價值工程
개치공정
Value Engineering
2015年
33期
37-38
,共2页
对外贸易%经济增长%协整检验%Granger因果检验
對外貿易%經濟增長%協整檢驗%Granger因果檢驗
대외무역%경제증장%협정검험%Granger인과검험
foreign trade%economic growth%co-integration test%Granger casual test
对外贸易被认为是经济增长的外部因素,对推动国家或一个地区经济增长具有"加速器"的作用.文章以云南省为研究对象,选取1981—2014年云南省GDP、进出口数据用协整检验和Granger因果检验分析对外贸易对经济增长的作用.结果表明云南省GDP、进、出口之间存在长期均衡关系,进、出口与GDP之间存在单向因果关系,并且进口是出口的Granger原因.最后根据结果和云南实际情况,对云南省的对外贸易与经济增长协调发展提出了对策和建议.
對外貿易被認為是經濟增長的外部因素,對推動國傢或一箇地區經濟增長具有"加速器"的作用.文章以雲南省為研究對象,選取1981—2014年雲南省GDP、進齣口數據用協整檢驗和Granger因果檢驗分析對外貿易對經濟增長的作用.結果錶明雲南省GDP、進、齣口之間存在長期均衡關繫,進、齣口與GDP之間存在單嚮因果關繫,併且進口是齣口的Granger原因.最後根據結果和雲南實際情況,對雲南省的對外貿易與經濟增長協調髮展提齣瞭對策和建議.
대외무역피인위시경제증장적외부인소,대추동국가혹일개지구경제증장구유"가속기"적작용.문장이운남성위연구대상,선취1981—2014년운남성GDP、진출구수거용협정검험화Granger인과검험분석대외무역대경제증장적작용.결과표명운남성GDP、진、출구지간존재장기균형관계,진、출구여GDP지간존재단향인과관계,병차진구시출구적Granger원인.최후근거결과화운남실제정황,대운남성적대외무역여경제증장협조발전제출료대책화건의.
Foreign trade is regarded as the external factors of economic growth, it likes the "accelerator" for promoting the economic growth of a country or a region. This paper takes Yunnan Province as the research object to analyze the the role of foreign trade on economic growth by using the co-integration test and Granger casual test of the GDP of Yunnan Province in 1981-2014 and the import and export data. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and import and export in Yunnan Province. There is the one-way causal relationship between import and export and GDP, and import is a Granger cause of export. According to the results and the actual situation in Yunnan, the countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of foreign trade and economic growth of Yunnan Province are put forward.
