现代电子技术
現代電子技術
현대전자기술
Modern Electronics Technique
2015年
22期
17-20,24
,共5页
参数辨识%加权一阶局域预测模型%忙时话务量%预测精度
參數辨識%加權一階跼域預測模型%忙時話務量%預測精度
삼수변식%가권일계국역예측모형%망시화무량%예측정도
parameter identification%weighting first-order local prediction model%busy hour traffic%prediction accuracy
为了改善加权一阶局域预测模型的预测精度,提出衡量相点间相关性的相关度函数.利用相关度函数确定预测中心点的参考邻域,并将相关度的大小以加权的方式作用于加权一阶局域预测模型,进而推导出辨识加权一阶局域预测模型参数的算法.最后将预测模型用于忙时话务量的预测中,结果表明,该模型有效地提高了忙时话务量的预测精度,验证了相关度函数衡量相点间相关性的有效性.
為瞭改善加權一階跼域預測模型的預測精度,提齣衡量相點間相關性的相關度函數.利用相關度函數確定預測中心點的參攷鄰域,併將相關度的大小以加權的方式作用于加權一階跼域預測模型,進而推導齣辨識加權一階跼域預測模型參數的算法.最後將預測模型用于忙時話務量的預測中,結果錶明,該模型有效地提高瞭忙時話務量的預測精度,驗證瞭相關度函數衡量相點間相關性的有效性.
위료개선가권일계국역예측모형적예측정도,제출형량상점간상관성적상관도함수.이용상관도함수학정예측중심점적삼고린역,병장상관도적대소이가권적방식작용우가권일계국역예측모형,진이추도출변식가권일계국역예측모형삼수적산법.최후장예측모형용우망시화무량적예측중,결과표명,해모형유효지제고료망시화무량적예측정도,험증료상관도함수형량상점간상관성적유효성.
In order to improve prediction accuracy of weighting first-order local prediction model,a correlation function is proposed to measure the correlation between different phase points,which is used to determine the referential neighborhood of central point. The correlation degree is acted on the weighting first order local prediction model in the form of weighting to de-rive the algorithm for identifying the parameters of weighting first-order local prediction model. The prediction model is applied to prediction of busy hour traffic. The test results show that the prediction model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of busy hour traffic. The validity of correlation function to measure the correlation between different phase points was verified.
