CAJ | 학술논문

在软件项目生存周期早期或创新型项目的研发过程中,可用的案例数据很少或很不完整,项目风险多由专家经验进行主观评估,给风险的客观度量带来了很大的困难.提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的软件项目风险评估方法,不仅可度量风险影响程度的风险当量,还能度量出多种风险对某种风险后果的组合影响以及单个风险对整体后果的综合影响,从而增强了软件项目风险的预测和应变能力,为有效地降低风险发生概率、提高软件开发成功率提供了一种新的途径.
재연건항목생존주기조기혹창신형항목적연발과정중,가용적안례수거흔소혹흔불완정,항목풍험다유전가경험진행주관평고,급풍험적객관도량대래료흔대적곤난.제출료일충기우패협사망락적연건항목풍험평고방법,불부가도량풍험영향정도적풍험당량,환능도량출다충풍험대모충풍험후과적조합영향이급단개풍험대정체후과적종합영향,종이증강료연건항목풍험적예측화응변능력,위유효지강저풍험발생개솔、제고연건개발성공솔제공료일충신적도경.
In the early phase of software project life cycle or the research and development process of innovative project,the available case data are few or incomplete,and project risk mainly experiences the subjective assessment of experts which brings great difficulties for the objective measure of risk.A software project risk assessment method based on Bayesian network is pro-vided,which is not only capable of measuring the risk equivalent of the risk impact,but also able to measure out the combined effect of a variety of risks on the consequences of a certain risk or an individual risk on the overall consequences,thus increas-ing the prediction and response capabilities of the software project risk,and thus providing a new way that can effectively reduce the risk probability and improve the success rate of software development.